Income Gap Hindering Trading Volumes

Recently, there has been a decent amount of coverage on the lack of volume within the trading markets. The consensus theory is that there is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right moment to invest. The conversation also suggests that the money is not yet invested because there is a lack of regulation direction. That probably is correct. But does the income gap have a part in this equation?

The fact that the rich have more to invest in the stock market and don't even while balance sheets and profits have never been better should be an indication that something is amiss. The extra money being made by the rich is going into safer instruments (i.e. bonds) than stocks because the money doesn't need to be invested at a level of risk normally associated with equities. Combine this with a growing number of families that lack the income to invest, and you might have lower volumes.

Having a lower volume right now is not good. But when the rich don't need to and the rest can't, what else is supposed to happen?

Solar Stocks

Solar stocks are in a bullish mood right now.

arbitrary coherence

I started reading Daniel Ariely's Predictably Irrational, and the topic of Arbitrary Coherence was brought up. In the book's words, "Although initial prices can be "arbitrary," once those prices are established in our minds, they will shape not only present prices but also future ones (thus making them "coherent"). " With this being said, I am looking at stock prices a little more carfully with the focus being on the relationship between a company's stock price and its true value. If there is a significant difference, is arbitrary coherence a reason? Can understanding the topic of Arbitrary Coherence make a person a better investor or trader? I think so.

Comments welcome.

Banks will be lending soon

It looks like the retail banks will begin lending more in the near future. There are a few reasons for this idea. The banks' last quarter's earnings showed a lessening of loan losses. The banks' trading gains have also come back to earth now, eliminating that outlier. Companies also will be looking to expand their business as their balance sheets are cleaned up and their efficiencies are almost at an all time high.

The banks loan loss totals are getting smaller. This is obviously a positive for the banks in a couple of ways. Primarily, the banks can lessen the amount of money they hold back in order to cover loan losses. Last quarter, the banks used this money to pad earnings. But this is a bad long term strategy and can not be used for very long. The banks also have to replenish the amount of actual loans that were dramatically lessened in the last three to four years to their balance sheet. Consumer credit is increasing, allowing banks to feel more comfortable lending. Businesses have straightened out there balance sheets and set up their businesses to grow.

The ridiculous trading profits that were provided by the government funding through TARP is basically over. The market will not increase 50% like it did in the last two years. This will force the banks to find other forms of revenue in order to keep their shareholders happy. Lending is something that the banks are rumored to do from time to time.

Companies will have to expand their business in order to grow their profits. The ability to cut more is almost over. Production is quite high right now. Their balance sheets are set up to handle loans. They will be looking to the banks in order to provide loans to expand their business.

Chasing wealth

There is a trade I want to make but I would need to break away from my plan in order to get in now. This is where discipline is important. It is important to work the plan.

I thought I would be in the trade two weeks ago but the stock has moved up to a point where even if it stays at this price, it will still be a week or two before I can get in.

For information on the trade, you can go to my call selling blog.

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Commissions

Recently, one of my brokers lowered its commissions rates by . This is important as I use this account for trading and will plan to make 25+ trades in the coming year.

Commissions do affect how you invest. You must include those costs when figuring out your returns.

Dividend Stock During Downturn

This downturn should be a reminder to us to look to either start or add to positions that carry high dividend yields. Over the long term, this strategy has done very well. The important step is the research you do in finding stable stocks. A few stocks that I have found to have a high dividend yield compared to their average are GE, Exxon Mobil, Johnson and Johnson, and Kraft. I am sure there are others. Please post what you find.